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Completely Ignorant NFL Week 7 Picks

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Introduction

Another week, another picks column. Another week, nothing but the picks column. Like I said a couple of week ago, I might need to consider changing the name of the web page. But, and this is important, two thing have happened. Chris is back from his trip to California, so we can record on the weekends. And, our weekend craziness is going to take a break with soccer finishing up soon and Liam’s play performance happening next month. That will free up a lot of time for us to record, too. Oh, I thought of another thing. Winter break happens for all of us in December and continues into January for me. That means we will definitely get this thing on track for the new year.

Until then, I’ll continue to amuse and amaze with my weekly picks column. After a 10-5 record two weeks ago, I went 11-4 straight up last week. I’m also plus .500 against the spread over the last two weeks.  Either what I said last week about the first 4 weeks of the season being crazy due to a shortened preseason and I’m getting the hang of things or the gambling gods are setting me up for a fall in the coming weeks. We shall see.

The Cosmic Joke of Thursday Night Football

A couple of weeks ago I stated that I would henceforth just be picking home teams on Thursday night football as they have an advantage and I’m quite busy during the week to pick a game before Thursday night. Well, the gambling gods responded to that challenge by making the Giants the home team last week and then the Cardinals this week. I suppose that says something for making such broad and sweeping proclamations. Needless to say, I did not pick the Cardinals this week.

Week 7 Picks

To hit my deadline, I need to just list the picks again. Going to scarecrow in the park and then a 2 year old’s birthday party.

Chargers over Titans in London

Pats beat the Bears, but I have Mitch in daily fantasy so hopefully their defense still stinks.

Colts roll the D3 Bills

Detroit steals a win in Miami

Vikes beat a surprisingly frisky Jets

Browns over the Bucs. What can I say other than God Bless the Browns.

Jags nip the Texans

C’mon New Orleans, beat the Rats

LA Rams stay undefeated against the 49ers

Dallas over the Racists

Chefs get back on track against Cincy

And, the Falcons beat the hapless Gynts

The Verdict

Nothing here to really get excited about. Certainly nothing on the order of the Chefs/Pats game last week. The Steelers are on a bye, which gives me the chance to talk about how I’ve gone from a life long Steelers fan to actively despising the team. See you next weekend.

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Completely Ignorant 2018 NFL Week 6 Picks

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Introduction

Last week represented either a course correction or a rare good week just to keep me gambling. Oh, you didn’t know that? Yes, gambling is a living entity that thrives on the stupidity of humans to continue to spend their money even after it has become abundantly clear that the odds are stacked against them. When you start to feel like things are turning against you, gambling convinces you that a “hot streak” is coming only to slap you in the face with huge losses.

What that all means is that I was 10 and 5 straight up last week. Moreover, after a week in which I was considering not picking against the spread and surely not gambling on them, I went a somewhat respectable 8 and 7. So, maybe the first four weeks of the season are just an aberration with the shortened practice and preseason schedule. Wait, no! Gambling, you won’t get me that easily.

A Note on Thursday/Laziness

So, just last week I made the declaration that I would just pick the home team in every Thursday night game to prevent having to meet a Wednesday deadline. I suppose I could just pick the Thursday night game at the end of this article every week. Wait, no! This isn’t about me taking responsibility for my actions.

Well, the universe played quite the joke on me by making the Giants the home team this past week against the Iggles. Sure the Iggs have been having a rough time of it this year, but they can beat Eli and the Giants without breaking a sweat. So, I guess there are a few lessons to be learned. Good for me, I haven’t been in school for over 20 years.

Week 6 Picks

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Like the Iggls, the Falcons have had a rough year. They just got destroyed by the Steelers and are 1-4 on the season. I guess Kyle Shanahan was the offense. Tampa Bay started as everyone’s darlings and then Ryan Fitzpatrick’s deal with the devil ran out. He should talk to Tom Brady’s guy. Either way, I think the Falcs can beat the Bucs.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Those who have been reading for a while know that I was born in Pittsburgh in the 1970s. I had no choice. I was a Steelers fan. Earlier in the year, I heard that Big Ben was accused of getting feely with Stormy Daniels and it broke me. I am no longer a Steelers fan. It’s only a coincidence that they stink this year. They might beat the Bengals, but that doesn’t make them good. You just never know with divisional games. I pick the Bengals.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland: I was watching football at the in laws house last week. The Browns/Ravens game was on. By the end of the game, I was openly rooting for the team that in my childhood I hated with a passion of a thousand suns. I was also texting Chris and during the game I said, “God Bless the Browns.” Unfortunately, I think the Chargers win this one.

Chicago at Miami: Miami has fallen back to earth after being beaten by the Pats a couple of weeks ago. Chicago pulled off the trade of the season by landing Mack. So far, I’ve pulled off one of the waiver steals of the season by grabbing Chitown’s defense in fantasy after Week 1. Trubisky won’t ever have a game like he did last week again, but this defense can win games as long as he doesn’t lose it.

Seattle at Oakland: It has been fun to root against Jon Gruden this season. He was insufferable years ago and became even more so as an announcer in the interim. Everyone was predicting good things for him and the Raiders this year. Then, he got quite a start by trading away their best defensive player and things got even better when he complained about not having a pass rush. Go Seahawks.

Arizona at Minnesota: Minnesota is favored big in this game, but I don’t see it. They already laid an egg earlier against the other D3 team, Buffalo, but their defense hasn’t been as intimidating this year as it was last year. They’ll beat the Cardinals, but Arizona might make it a game.

Indianapolis at New York Jets: A few years ago, a friend said something about Seattle when we were talking about football. I replied, in earnest, “Seattle has a football team?” I’m starting to feel that way about Indianapolis. Plus, the Jets have a good young QB. I think the Jets can hang and possibly win.

Carolina at Washington: We live in a country where the nation’s capital football team has a racial slur as a nickname. Further, the owner is a rich white guy who stubbornly refuses to change the name. Screw DC and screw their racist nickname. Go Panthers.

Buffalo at Houston: Houston is inexplicably favored by 8.5 points. I know that I (half) jokingly refer to Buffalo as one of the NFL D3 teams, but that’s just insane. I guess they think that DeShaun is going to eventually break out and find his rhythm and this is as good a game as any. I just don’t see it, even if I think they’ll win.

Los Angeles Rams at Denver: I’m all in on the Rams and Chiefs this year. They had a hiccup against Seattle last week, but again, divisional games are weird. You just never know. I thought they’d destroy the Broncos and they still might. It’s running game strength against weakness. My friend just texted me a picture of snow in Denver. Winter is coming indeed.

Jacksonville at Dallas: Dallas stinks on ice this year. I’m not sure if it’s the coach or what, but it does feel like they should be much better than they are, so I guess so. Jacksonville is up and down from week to week. This is a tough game to pick and I’d never bet it, but I’ll go with the Jags being back up this week.

Baltimore at Tennessee: Well, if Indianapolis is fading from my memory, then Tennessee isn’t far behind them. I guess we could just take the whole AFC South and throw them out and I’d not miss a single wink of sleep. Baltimore, even with their loss against the Browns last week, are a decent team. I’ll take them.

Kansas City at New England: Chris and I have been texting about this game for a couple of weeks. Before last game, where he finally looked human, I kept saying that Mahomes was going to rip the Pats pass defense several new ones. I just can’t pick against the Pats at home until it starts to happen. Rooting for KC, but picking NE.

San Francisco at Green Bay: San Fran is another one of those teams that had high hopes at the beginning of the season. Those went a bit up in smoke when Jimmy G-sus got hurt. Rodgers has been hurt, too, but the Packers are still a fun team. I think they can win, but I don’t see them covering.

The Verdict

Week 6 is slightly more interesting than the last two weeks. Can Mahomes and the Chefs really take that next step and beat the Pats? Or, will Andy Reid take form and doom them to a 4 or 5 game losing stream like last year? How will the Rams do in weather? How many players will die in the Steelers/Bungles game? So, a few games worth watching. I, on the other hand, will be avoiding all football because I think this is the week that my fantasy team lays an egg. For those watching, enjoy!

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Completely Ignorant 2018 NFL Week 5 Picks

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Introduction

Week 4 went very horribly wrong against the spread. I was a respectable 7 and 6 again to go 7 games over .500 straight up, but could not pick a spread to save my life. As this is an experiment, I have a couple of hypotheses. First, maybe the NFL is weird with only 4 preseason games and things don’t start to settle down until Week 5 or 6. Two, and possibly more likely, is that I’m not a sharp and I don’t have the time or the inclination to be one.

I’m still going to keep track of picks against the spread to see if things improve over the next few weeks. If they don’t, then my 10 or whatever dollars every week that I plan to bet starting next year will just go to money line bets. I don’t mind throwing money away, but I’d rather have a chance every now and then to win my money back.

A Note About Thursday Night Football

Have I said how much I hate Thursday night football? Not this week in this article, so here goes. Craig texted me at about 8 pm on Thursday with the news that Sony Michel was starting on our fantasy team and he hoped I was okay with that. I didn’t get the text until it was too late to do anything about it, but told him what my plans would have been. Cut to us texting back and forth with updates for every single yard he gained until he got the garbage time TD. All of fantasy is garbage time and I love to hate it. Oh, I picked the Pats. Let’s just say that I pick the home team every week on Thursday so I don’t have to feel bad about missing that deadline.

Week 5 Picks

Another week in just under the deadline, so just the picks, Ma’am.

Baltimore over Cleveland

Kansas City continues to roll against Jacksonville

Tennessee rolls Division 3 Buffalo

Carolina beats the hapless Giants

Denver over the weirdly favored Jets

Vegas has no idea what to do with the Falcons and Steelers. Neither do I, but I’m out on Pittsburgh. Falcons roll.

Green Bay gets another key divisional victory over the Lions

Cincinnati limps into a tie with Baltimore in the division lead after destroying the once heralded Dolphins.

Chargers return Gruden and the Raiders to their losing ways

Arizona hasn’t had their “Hey, we’re an NFL team, too” game like the Bills did against the Vikes, right? Maybe this is it and they beat the 49ers

Minnesota reminds Iggles fans what it used to be like

Jared Goff and the Rams destroy Seattle’s depleted secondary

Houston over the Crybabies of Dallas

Finally New Orleans rolls the Washington Racists

The Verdict

Week 5 isn’t as bad as week 4 was, but it’s a busy weekend for our family. We already spent the better part of yesterday at a local festival and we are scheduled to do so again today. Not that I’m the football fan that I used to be, but there’s nothing here that would keep me home. Heck, after Michel got 20 points the other day, I’m not even going to watch my fantasy team this week.

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Completely Ignorant 2018 NFL Week 3 Picks

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Introduction

Another week, another picks column. As Belichick says, “We’re on to Week 3.” Sure, this one is coming on Sunday morning instead of Saturday afternoon or evening. Because of that you will be spared my, perhaps (not so), witty reparte for each game. To paraphrase Al Davis, “Just picks, Baby.” But, I’m still coming in under deadline!

Before we get there, though, I need to take my medicine. After a mediocre first week, Vegas murdered me this week. I went 6-10 against the spread and 8-8 straight up. I’m not sure if they qualify as sharps or not, but it sounded like Simmons and Sal didn’t exactly have the greatest of weeks either. Maybe it was just a weird week of football. There was the second tie in as many weeks, after all.

A Note on Jets/Browns

I know this is going to stretch my credibility a bit, but I did pick the Browns this week. One thing I know about Thursday night football, other than it sucks on almost every level, is that they often favor the home team. I did pick the Jets to cover, though, so maybe that will lend some authenticity to my pick.

Week 3 Picks

New Orleans at Atlanta (-3): New Orleans

San Francisco at Kansas City(-5): Kansas City

Oakland at Miami (-4.5): Miami

Buffalo at Minnesota(-16.5): Minnesota

Indianapolis at Philadelphia (NL): Philadelphia

Green Bay (-2.5) at Washington: Green Bay

Cincinnati at Carolina (-3): Cincinnati

Tennessee at Jacksonville (NL): Jacksonville

Denver at Baltimore (-5.5): Denver

New York Giants at Houston (-3.5): Houston

Los Angeles Chagers at Los Angeles Rams (-7): Rams

Chicago (-4.5) at Arizona: Chicago

Dallas at Seattle (-3): Dallas

New England (-7) at Detroit: Detroit

Pittsburgh (-3) at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay

The Verdict

Week 3 has some intriguing story lines. Chris and I were texting about the Browns as Tyrod Taylor had a line at one point that was 2-7 for 7 yards. Then Mayfield came in and I’m happy as hell. I want to see the guy do well to stick it in the ears of all of the talking heads who “hot take” want him to fail because he’s too exuberant.

Are New England and Pittsburgh done? Probably not for the Pats. Almost definitely for the Steelers. Can the little brother Chargers win against the mighty Rams? As you saw above, I don’t think so. Carson Wentz is coming back. All in all a potentially entertaining week of football.

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Completely Ignorant NFL 2018 Week 2 Picks

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Introduction

I didn’t do too badly last week. Both against the spread and straight up, I went 9-6. I’d obviously like to improve Week 2, but it’s not crucial. Since this year is just about hitting deadlines as consistently as possible (more on that next section), I’m not sure if I would have come out ahead on money with my picks. I also should probably take this season as a test run. Don’t want to develop a gambling problem if I’m going to consistently throw money away. I already do that enough comic books and Magic the Gathering cards.

A Few Words on Thursday Night Football

It only took me one week to miss a deadline. I don’t know if I properly expressed my displeasure with Thursday football last week, so allow me to elaborate. Football on Thursday makes me have to check my fantasy team one more day during the week. Thursday football means that I look like I’m being negligent with the web page because I miss my deadline. The games are always terrible. There’s just no reason for this abomination to exist.

Further, the game this week is awful for me as a Steelers fan. During last year’s Super Bowl, I made the comment that picking between the Pats and Iggles was like choosing to cut off a limb or saw it off with a rusty knife or something like that. This game, which has the Rats playing the Bungs is worse. But, all things being equal, I chose the home team. You can choose to believe me or not. I’m 1-0.

Week 2 Picks

Carolina at Atlanta (-3.5): Atlanta showed me absolutely nothing in the first game against the Iggles. Carolina wasn’t much more impressive, but at least they beat the Cowboys. I’m picking the Panthers to go 2-0 and take a bit of a strangle hold on the NFC South. George: Carolina

LA Chargers (-7.5) at Buffalo: I picked LA to win and to cover because I thought they were the Rams. It seems like that is going to be a running theme this year. The Chargers stink, but the Bills are virtually nonexistant. I’ll stick with my initial instinct. George: LA

Minnesota at Green Bay (-2.5): Fresh off his one legged whipping of Da Bears, Aaron Rodgers gets to face another ridiculously good defense. The Pack is at home and you can’t ever count them out as long as Rodgers is in there. If he doesn’t play? They get rolled. George: Green Bay

Houston at Tennessee (NL): The Bungs/Rats was a pick. There is one other pick and this one is no line. This game makes sense because of Mariotta, but I don’t remember there being 3 games in a week with no line. What a nightmare for actual gamblers. Either way, I think Houston bounces back. George: Tennessee

Cleveland at New Orleans (-7.5): If I should have been infuriated by last week’s Steelers/Browns line, this one should have be apoplectic. The Aint’s just made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like the undisputed MVP and the Brownies played the Steelers to a stale mate. Even so, I like the Aint’s to take care of business. George: Aint’s

New York Jets (-1) at Miami Dolphins: The Jets are 1-0 after destroying the Lions. The Dolphins are 1-0 after winning one of the weirder games in recent memory. The Jets are road favorites. And I like the Jets. Hey, someone has to take 2nd place in this division. If not for the Bills, I’d make the case for this one bubbling up to respectability like the NFC South and West did in recent seasons. George: Dolphins

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-5.5): I’m going to sound like a homer and that’s fine. However, this game just feels like recent KC/Pitt games where Pitt is being undervalued due to an underwhelming first game and KC is being overvalued for a decent first game. The Steelers usually win these games 38-30. I’m not ready to declare the Steelers good yet, but I think they’ll win even if KC covers. George: KC

Philadelphia (-3) at Tampa Bay: Nobody is giving the Iggles any respect this year. I can’t blame them as I’m not exactly ready to crown them anything, either. Their defense is good, but Nick Foles is back to being Nick Foles. Until Wentz comes back, I won’t believe in the Iggles. But, they could probably beat Tampa with 10 players on either side. George: Tampa

Indianapolis at Washington (-3.5): Indy gets to celebrate Andrew Luck returning. That’s about all they have to celebrate. Washington should win this game easily. George: Washington

Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (-10): After watching these two teams in week 1,  they can’t make this line high enough for me to pick Arizona. All I’ll say about them is I feel bad for Larry Fitzgerald. Can’t they just trade him to New England for a chance at winning a Super Bowl? George: Arizona

Detroit at San Francisco (-3.5): The 9ers hung with the Vikings (at least as far as the score was concerned) and Detroit was eviscerated by the Jets. I’m going with Jimmy Gsus to return to his winning ways. George: Detroit

Oakland at Denver (-4): Seems that Vegas is already off the Gruden bandwagon. To my credit, I was never on it, and I don’t see anything that will happen this week to get me onto it. Last week I compared him to Art Shell. Shell might have actually been a better move at the time. George: Oakland

New England at Jacksonville (Pick): This is the other pick that I alluded to earlier. Sure, it’s in Jacksonville and they have a good defense. Every year, New England has a few eggs that they lay, especially against teams that they might meet again in the playoffs. Still, this one has me scratching my head. Patsies win. George: New England

New York at Dallas (-3): I picked Dallas but only because they’re at home. This is a game similar to the Bungs/Rats that I had difficulty choosing, but for a different reason. Neither of these teams excites me and I’d probably pick against either of them except for a few situations. George: New York

Seattle at Chicago (-3): I wasn’t sure what to think about the Mack trade after texting with Chris. He wasn’t impressed by Mack’s previous season, so I started to side with Gruden. Now I’m hearing that Mack wanted out of Oakland and with the first game he had against Green Bay, it looks like he’s back and ready to wreak havoc. I was so impressed that I picked up Chicago’s defense for my fantasy team. Da Bears win. George: Chicago

The Verdict

Not many of the games this week are especially attractive to casual fans. I’m interested to see what the Steelers do after tying a Browns team in spite of 6 turnovers and countless other mistakes. I’m starting to get excited about the possibility of the Rams being a team that just buries their opponents. Do the Jets keep riding high after their destruction of the Lions? Other than that, I’m only concerned with my fantasy team winning so that I don’t go 0-2 to start the year.

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Completely Ignorant 2018 NFL Week 1 Picks

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Introduction

Over the past few years, I’ve had plans to do weekly predictions for the NFL season. I’ve never even made it to Week 1. Since my schtick here is that I’m completely ignorant when it comes to the NFL, part of what I’m trying to do is expose the fraudulent business of NFL predictors by showing that someone who knows almost nothing about the sport can perform just as well as they can. I’ve wanted to do that by picking one of these guys and comparing my record to them. While I haven’t done that this year, at least I’ve gotten as far as making my picks for the first week on time. Baby Steps.

Who is George?

While my picks aren’t completely random, as you’ll see from the article that follows, I also had the idea to further drive home the point that these chuckleheads don’t know any more than you or me by pitting them against a coin. 100 coins actually. A simulation of 100 coins actually. Quarters. Hence, George, because, well I’m sure you get it.

A Note on Atlanta/Philly

At the end of my NFC Preview, I picked the Hall of Fame game. Is that what they’re calling it? Whatever, that first Thursday night game that screws fantasy players because everyone forgets about Thursday night football. I forgot about Thursday night football until I got a text from the comanager of our fantasy football team about setting the line up for the night. I replied, “I hate Thursday Night football”.

Now I have more of a reason to hate it. I picked the Falcons to win because I figured that Nick Foles deal with Satan has to be running out soon. What I forgot is that the Iggs have a pretty good defense, these Thursday games are always weird, especially this first one, and the road team almost never wins. So, we start the season 0-1.

Week 1 Picks

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cleveland: As a football fan, I should be shocked that Cleveland is getting any respectability this year. As a Steelers fan, I should be appalled that Cleveland is within a touchdown of the Steelers. Then, I accidentally heard some stats this weekend that pertain to the game. When these two teams played in Week 1 last year, it was the only game that Cleveland was within 6 points of the opponent. Also, Pittsburgh is only 15-12 when one of their “Big 3” doesn’t play. This is like Cleveland’s Super Bowl. They’ll keep it close and might even cover, but the Steelers win. George has the Steelers, 52-48.

San Francisco at Minnesota (-6.5): If Minnesota’s defense is even close to as good as they were last year, they’re going to be really good. Other that Jimmy G-sus, I can’t name a single 49ers player. Even so, last year the kid seemed to have a horseshoe around his neck. I think Minnesota wins, but the 49ers should be able to keep it close at least. George isn’t sure, 50-50.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-3): Indianapolis is “favored”, but we all know that the home team generally gets three points on the line. So, Vegas isn’t sure what to do with this game. To be honest, neither am I. I don’t want to pick Cincinnati because a win could jump start a surprise season for them and I don’t want that. However, there’s no reason to pick Indy other than they are at home. Cincy it is. I need a shower. George has Cincy at a slight edge 51-49.

Buffalo at Baltimore (-7.5): Either people think Baltimore is that good, Buffalo is that bad, or both. I’m somewhere in the middle. I think both of these teams stink, but Baltimore is home. Enjoy it while you can, Rats fans. George picks the Bills, 53-47.

Jacksonville (-3) at New York Giants: It feels weird to have to give the Jags respect. Look, I know that they beat my Steelers last year in the playoffs to make it to the AFC Championship. However, my enduring memory of Jacksonville will forever be that I memed my way to a fantasy football championship with Blake Bortles as my starting quarterback. I guess I can sell this one as disrespect for the Giants. There’s no problem there. George picks his first home team, 47-53.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-9.5): This is the largest line of the weekend. I won’t say that I’m shocked, but I am a bit surprised. Sure, New Orleans was a miracle play away from winning against the Vikings in the playoffs last year and Tampa Bay…is a nice city to visit, from what I hear. Still, almost double digits in Week 1? That’s crazy. What else is crazy? I’m picking New Orleans to cover. George likes New Orleans pretty big, 45-55.

Tennessee (-1.5) at Miami: If I wasn’t shocked by that last line, I certainly am by this one. What about Miami makes anyone think that they can stay within a field goal of Tennessee? This seems like a no brainer, which means usually means that I probably should have used my brain. George likes Tennessee, 56-44.

Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5): Another slightly perplexing number on this one. I understand not having much respect for the Chefs because of Andy Reid, but he’s a decent to good regular season coach. Initially, because I was thinking about the Rams, I was going to choose them across the board, but the Chefs seem a lock in this one. George has KC, 53-47.

Seattle at Denver (-3): Cliche alert: This is a rematch of a recent Super Bowl. Two? Three? Years ago. That just goes to show how crazy the NFL is these days. You’d never know by watching this game that these teams were recently in the Super Bowl. I have more faith in Seattle than many do this year and this game will go a long way in seeing if that faith is misguided. George says Seattle, 55-45.

Dallas at Carolina (-3): Okay, either we are overestimating Dallas (and when has that ever happened) or underestimating Carolina (for some reason, I can’t imagine why, oh maybe random Cam Newton hate) or both. I have always liked Cam Newton and hated the Cowboys, so I think the Panthers are going to roll them. George doesn’t think blowout, but still Panthers, 45-55.

Washington at Arizona (-1): As much as I hold an irrational hatred for Washington due to their racist nickname and the stubborn refusal of their owner to change it, I have no reason to believe that this game will even be close. George goes against the racists, 45-55.

Chicago at Green Bay (-7.5): Honestly, I think this should be the line that is pushing double digits. Sure, Chicago picked up Khalil Mack, but what’s that going to do for them? This team has been a train wreck for the better part of the last two years. Green Bay rolls. George’s most sure pick so far, 35-65 for GB.

New York Jets at Detroit (-6.5): The Jets are starting a rookie at quarterback. I guess that can’t be any worse than they’ve done recently. Still, this makes me think what happened to Teddy Bridgewater. Once upon a time, he was the future and then he was tossed from both the Vikes and the Jets. Yikes. Um, oh, Detroit wins. Maybe the Jets cover. George goes with Detroit, 46-54

Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Oakland Raiders: Two words: Rams win. Oh, you want more words? Rubber baby buggy bumpers. Seriously. Why only 4? Home game? Okay, but they’re leaving for Vegas. Jon Gruden? Remember Art Shell? Probably not, but I do. We’ve seen this show before. Spoiler Alert: It doesn’t end well for the Raiders. George thinks the Rams roll, 60-40

The Verdict (and Early Super Bowl Picks)

Overall, Week 1 looks like a decent week of football for anyone who is actually going to watch the NFL. I think we are going to be out at a fair with our youngest to start the autumn fun for our family. There will be checking of my fantasy football team at some point, so I’ll also update my Excel spreadsheet to keep track of how George and I are doing for the week. I include my Super Bowl picks here as well because I had a fairly strong premonition that it could be Iggles/Steelers. It’s been at least a couple of years since I picked and all PA Super Bowl, so why not.

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Completely Ignorant 2018 NFC Preview

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Introduction

I mentioned in my previous article that I took my cues for these articles from The Bill Simmons podcast. That’s not entirely true. I also texted a friend asking if he knew about any fantasy football leagues that I could join. It’s been a couple of years since I wasn’t invited back to a league that I won with Blake Bortles as my starting quarterback. Honestly, I didn’t miss it all that much.

However, all of the sports podcasts that I listen to have advertisements for fantasy football. They must have wormed their way into the dark corners of my brain only to spring into action at just the right time. I always thought that advertising didn’t work on me. Maybe I’m getting soft in my old age.

True to Simmons form, I had to subscribe to Cousin Sal’s podcast to get the NFC portion of their preview. However, and I say this with some pride, if the completely ignorant tag on my AFC preview wasn’t entirely true, it will be for this one. Not only do I keep a glancing eye on the AFC because my favorite team plays there, but I kept zoning out while listening to Simmons and Sal during their NFC show. More than once I said, “Wait, what team are they discussing?” Without further ado, on with the ignorance!

NFC East

  1. Iggles: The one thing that I do know about the NFC is that the Iggs won the Super Bowl last year with their second string quarterback. I can’t even remember that quarterback’s name. I just keep thinking Frank Reich or Brian Hoyer. Eh, I probably won’t have to know his name since Carson Wentz is supposed to be back. No reason to think that having him back will result in anything less than another division title.
  2. Washington: Our nation’s capital professional football team has a racist nickname and mascot. Not only that, but when you consider that they could both get positive press and  potentially more money from changing it and they don’t, you know Dan Snyder is a prick. With all that being said, I guess it is too much to ask karma to relegate this crap show into the bowels of oblivion every season. So, 2nd place this year it is for the racists.
  3. Cowgirls: I just called the previous team racist and now I’m making a slightly sexist joke? I suppose that it could be interpreted as such, but that’s not how I mean it. Um, I’m just going to apologize and move on to the next team.
  4. Gynts: Ugh, never mind, I’ll deal with the awkwardness of making a joke that can be misconstrued as sexist instead of dealing with the awkwardness of this train wreck of a team. Seriously, how did the NFC East go from one of the best divisions to possibly the worst? The NFL has this parity thing on lock.

NFC West

  1. Rams: In my previous article, I mentioned that there are somehow two teams in Los Angeles again, and neither one of them is the raiders. The Rams are a much more LA team than the Chargers and they are getting the appropriate buzz of a team that resides in La La Land. It’ll be fun to watch if they an live up to it.
  2. Seahawks: I’m ready to give the Seahawks one more year. They haven’t had a hugely precipitous decline, but when you think that they were just in the Super Bowl 3? years ago and now they could be a 4th place team next year (or maybe this year) depending on how Jimmy G-sus in Frisco and whoever is playing for whatever other team is in this division do in those seasons.
  3. 49ers: I’m not as keen on good old Jimmy G-sus as some others out there. I’m not saying he’s bad. I’m just not ready to say that he’s very good. Sure, he had some great games last year, but so did Nick Foles. Maybe people are right and the NFL is just a quarterback’s league to the point that mediocre quarterbacks are now considered good to great.
  4. Cardinals: Our crack team of reporters have informed me that the other team in this division is the Cardinals. The only thing that I can ever say about the Cardinals is I feel bad for Larry Fitzgerald. I feel even worse that it was my Steelers who roadblocked his only Super Bowl possibility.

NFC North

  1. Packers: I’ve heard more than one professional writer, paid money by ESPN to write, use the Brink’s truck metaphor to describe Aaron Rodgers’ contract. If they’re not being ironic, because that’s what the kids do these days, then that’s a sad state on the affair of sports writing. Grantland Rice, these guys ain’t.
  2. Vikings: The Purple People eaters got reincarnated in a big way last year. I kept hearing rumblings about Minny’s defense, but I didn’t actually witness them until the playoffs and they were really dang good. I remember texting Chris during the game in awe of the defense. The defense might still be good this year, but I don’t think they can carry the team to a first place finish.
  3. Lions: The Lions stink. Historically, they’ve mostly just been no damn good. The current team seems okay with their status as being no damn good and willing to continue that tradition of being no damn good. The only thing keeping them out of last place is.
  4. Da Bears: I texted Chris when I saw the scrawl on ESPN during one of the college football games. “The Raiders traded Khalil Mack.” He texted something back about a good player on a down year. Hmm, I mused, I guess I was just reacting to the name. I should have known that something was up because the Bears are a dumpster fire of a team right now.

NFC South

  1. Panthers: As long as Cam is the quarterback, you can’t rule out the Panthers. Because he’s their quarterback, they often don’t get respect from the “media” or something, so they always have that chip on their shoulder that all professional athletes need to succeed for some reason. For me, that gives them a slight edge over the Falcons and Ain’ts.
  2. Falcons: Old whatshisface, according to whatshisface from Jacksonville, is still the quarterback. He might be overrated. Who’s to say, really? But, he is one of the better quarterbacks in the league, the rest of the offense is pretty dang good, and the defense is serviceable.
  3. Aint’s: The old Aint’s snuck up on people a bit last year. They won’t have that same opportunity. Oh sure, there could be some “Win one for the Gipper” nonsense surrounding Brees getting older, but I don’t see it. They won’t be wearing paper bags in N’Awlins, but they won’t be dancing either. Except they always dance in N’Awlins. Ah, you get my point.
  4. Bucs: I know nothing about the Bucs. That’s not entirely true. I’m pretty sure Jameis Winston is still the quarterback. When he’s not sexually assaulting people or stealing crab legs, he’s not that great of a player to begin with. The fact that I can’t reliable name him as one of their players or any other player, for that matter, probably doesn’t bode well for them.

The Verdict

The Rams look like they can put up a good fight and maybe meet the Iggles in the Championship. I recently learned that Wentz isn’t going to start the first game, which isn’t too bad considering Foles was decent last year. Still, that deal with the devil has got to be nearing an end and it is quite concerning that Wentz is still not cleared. Who knows? It would be interesting, and not altogether unpleasant, to see the Iggles go from NFL Champs to also rans.

Thursday Night Football

As I’m up against my deadline, I’m just going to make a quick pick for this game to have it on record. I’ll pick the other games Friday or Saturday.

Atlanta at Philadelphia: Speaking of those Iggs, and the possibly resurgent Falcons as I discussed, they play the opening game. The line right now is Iggs -2, which was probably higher before the Wentz decision, so there’s not much confidence in them right now. I’ll take the Falcons in an upset. George gives the Falcons a slight edge, too, 54-46. If you don’t know who George is, I’ll give him a full reintroduction in my picks on Saturday. See you then.

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Completely Ignorant 2018 AFC Preview

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Introduction

A couple of days ago, I was updating my podcast feed. During the update, I encountered a pleasant surprise. The Bill Simmons podcast, which had been a string of shows that I cared nothing about for the past 8 months, updated with their AFC preview with Cousin Sal. That’s when I know that it is truly time for me to start paying attention.

My birthday used to fall on the same day as the Super Bowl and more than once growing up I had a Super Bowl themed birthday party. Recently, I realized that there were so many other things to do on an autumn or winter Sunday afternoon than sit around and watch football. I’m not nearly the football fan that I used to be.

Oh sure, all of this kerfuffle around concussions and not standing for the national anthem have me curious. Just not curious enough to tune in every Sunday for about the last 5? 6? 7 years? When was the last time the Steelers won the Super Bowl? That would have been the last complete game I watched

Kneeling in church is the ultimate in respect. During the anthem, the ultimate in disrespect? I honestly don’t get it.

I do keep in the game by listening to Simmons and Sal every year. I’ve also become a huge college football fan. Instead of watching men get paid market value to smash their heads into one another, I’m watching unpaid interns. Old habits die hard and nobody’s perfect. Let’s bury that lead and get to the preview.

AFC East

  1. Patsies: Is there any more sure bet in sports than the Patriots winning the East every year? Sure, there are worse teams in the league in any given season, but this is the worst division 2-4 year in and year out. An automatic 6 (well, usually 5 because they sometimes poop the bed against the Fins in Miami) wins every year sure goes a long way to building a dynasty.
  2. Jets?: I guess. Buffalo had a decent season last year, but nobody knows how or even why. The Fins are perennially very bad and showed no inclination to get any better in the off season. The Jets have the new hotness at quarterback and there seems to be one a year that “surprises” everyone and leads their team to a big improvement. Perhaps this is the Jets year.
  3. Bills: If the Bills don’t repeat their improbable competence from last year, they should at least win enough games to keep them out of the basement this year. Honestly, though, does anyone know what to do with any of these teams besides the Patriots?
  4. Fins: Okay, so I’m 99.9% sure that Miami will end up in last place, so maybe it’s just the Jets and the Bills that I can’t tell the difference. If any of you says anything about the Jets wearing green and the Bills wearing blue, I will not be held responsible for my actions in response.

AFC West

  1. Chefs: People are high on the Chargers and even the Raiders for some reason (I’ll get into that reason when I get to them), but Andy Reid is the Chefest of all the coaches in the entire league. I promise that isn’t an intended fat joke. Completely by accident. I just mean that he wins in the regular season and then farts out in the playoffs. Who does that remind you of? If you said Marty Schottenheimer, give yourself a no prize.
  2. Chargers: The Chargers are in LA? Really? When did that happen? I guess I need to start paying more attention to this league. Then again, what would become of my “completely ignorant” previews? I think I’ll just settle for being pleasantly surprised by little things like the Chargers being in LA. Okay, preview time. The other team in LA is much more LA than this one, but with Phil Rivers as their QB, they can potentially make some noise.
  3. Broncos: The last time I paid attention to the Broncos, Peyton Manning was their QB. I’m pretty sure that they had a plan for when he retired, but damned if I know what that plan was. Given that fact, I’m pretty sure that it hasn’t worked out for them and it might be a few years until they’re relevant again. I still think they’re going to be better than the Raiders.
  4. Raiders: Earlier I mentioned some reason that has people thinking highly of the Raiders. That reason is that Jon Gruden, average coach and below average TV commentator, has taken over as their coach. If this sounds like familiar news, take away the below average TV commentator part of it, and we are 20 years ago. Except we’re all 20 years older. This is the worst episode of Quantum Leap ever.

AFC North

  1. Steelers: The Steelers winning the north are only a slightly less sure thing than the Patriots every year. Once in a while, the Bungles or the Rats bubble up and the Steelers have a down year. I don’t think this is that year. While this isn’t my father’s Steelers team, their offense is dynamic as hell and their defense is just good enough to keep teams in check.
  2. Bungles: The Bungles are the summer reruns of the NFL. Marvin Lewis just keeps on coaching. Andy Dalton just keeps on Andy Daltoning. And that Burfict guy just keeps taking dumb penalties at key points in the game. It’ll all be just enough to keep them in the playoffs discussion for most of the season.
  3. Rats: The Rats are a mess. While Jimbo sleeps in the treehouses of potential recruits, his brother John has carved out a respectable little legacy down there in Ballamore. However, other than elite quarterback Joe Flacco, what do the Rats really have? Maybe an exciting start followed by a crash back to earth midseason?
  4. Brownies: According to Simmons and Sal, people are excited about the Brownies. I can only assume this is because people are impressed by what they see on television, no matter the evidence to the contrary. After all, 2016 showed that. Sure, the Brownies have that guy that gave that great speech and the coach that gave the not so great speech, but this is the same team that has gone 1-31 over the last two years. This is not a Cinderella worst to first story waiting to happen.

AFC South

  1. Jags: The Jags hold a special place in my heart. Before this year, the last time I was in a fantasy football league, I won the league with Blake Bortles as my starting QB for the entire season. I was not invited back the next year. I also grudgingly respect the Jags for what they  were able to do against my Steelers in the playoffs last year and wouldn’t mind a rematch.
  2. Titans: The Titans are an intriguing team. They’ve taken over the Texans spot as the team from the AFC South that gets the most hype (and maybe even too much). I must be falling for it this year since I think that they could potentially overtake the Jags for first place. All because of Magic Man Mariota.
  3. Texans: I fell for the Texans hype for a few years. As the previous section shows, I’m now falling for the Titans hype. What’s funny is that with Watson as their quarterback, I should probably like the Texans more than I do. Oh well, if I get too much correct, then I’ll lose my completely ignorant label.
  4. Colts: Andrew Luck is back, but what does that mean? In a division with 2 potentially very good quarterbacks and one that is passable, will Luck even be that much of a factor for this team? What the heck happened? While we were all busy, the glasses came off of the AFC South and now they’re the beautiful girl we should have seen the whole time.

The Verdict

This doesn’t seem like much of a year for surprises in the AFC. The AFC South has the potential to be very exciting and things might get weird in the AFC West. Oh, heck, what am I saying? Things probably will get weird in the AFC West. Until the Steelers prove that they can beat someone in the playoffs, it’ll probably be the Golden Boy representing in the Super Bowl again this year. Come back in a couple of days (or maybe even tomorrow) for my Completely Ignorant NFC preview. Have to get that and my picks for the first week done before Thursday, after all.

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Completely Ignorant NFL Championship Preview

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Post Mortem on the Divisional Round (and the elephant in the room that is my Steelers)

Not much to say about the Patriots game. I was 100% correct on that one. I was about 50% correct on the Eagles vs. Falcons game as that game was more or less a toss up during the Falcons last possession of the game. I was dead wrong about the Steelers game and I don’t even know how to score the Vikings game since they went from about a 22% chance to win to over 98% chance to win after that touchdown. What it all boils down to is a 2-2 record in the divisional round and overall 4-4 for the playoffs.

Okay, let’s talk about my Steelers. I tuned the game out at halftime and then we went over to visit Christine’s parents. My father in law said to me as I walked into the house, “Tie game.” I responded with the appropriate shocked reaction and then learned that the Steelers were actually down by 7 points. Well, that was enough to hook me for the rest of the game. I’m sorry that I did. That was a pathetic display against what we were told by all of the experts was an inferior team led by a subpar quarterback. I can accept being beaten by the Patriots (no, I can’t), but to continually lose every year with the amount of talent they have is unacceptable.

I was texting with Chris during the game and my assessment was, “I like Tomlin, but that game was an abomination. It might be time to start talking about him going.” It was in the heat of the moment and I’ve had some time to cool off. I don’t feel any different. I know that nothing will come of it, but maybe they will at least make an example out of Haley? Who am I kidding? I’ll meet you back here next year, just as dejected as I am right now.

NFL Championship Weekend

Now, for this weekend. I’m going to do things a little bit differently here. (a) Because I’m a math nerd and I have to get my brain ready for the new semester, (b) because sometimes I just like to switch things up every now and then, and (c) we all know that the Patriots are going to repeat as champions this year, so why not have some fun this weekend. I’ve looked up the probabilities for each team to make the Super Bowl atPlayoff Statusand used those to figure out the probabilities of each match up for the Super Bowl. I will analyze each of those from least to most likely and then make my pick at the end. Hope this works!

Least Likely Matchup(10.35%) – Jaguars vs. Vikings

The Jaguars are massive underdogs to the Patriots this week and the Vikings are just below a coin toss at the Eagles. I’m rooting for the Jags for two reasons. First, eff the Pats. Second, long ago my dad instilled in me that you want to root for the team that beat you because then you can soothe your wounds by saying at least you lost to the champs. When the Pats usually beat the Steelers, these two are at odds with one another. Not so far this year. Watching the Vikings dismantle Drew Brees and the Saints for a half after watching the debacle that was my Steelers makes them my new favorite team.Verdict: I guess you could say that my heart wishes for this one.

Only Slightly More Likely (12.65%) – Jaguars vs. Eagles

Considering I never thought either of these two teams would even sniff the conference championships, you could say that I’m surprised that this is even a possibility, let alone the fact that it happens in about 1/8 universes that are currently in existence. The schadenfreude in me wants to see exactly what they’d talk about in the 2 weeks leading to the game and then in the 12 hours of pregame on the actual day of the game. Nevermind, I know. It would be all about Blake Bortles, World Beater. Get in line, hosers, he got me a championship first.Verdict: Nobody wishes for this horror show of a game.

Happens In Over a Third of Possible Universes (34.65%) – Patriots vs. Vikings

After my Steelers lost, I was in quite the tizzy. I went from wanting to see Brady vs. Brees to wanting to see Minnesota’s defense against Brady. I may have settled on that last one. I don’t want Tom Brady anywhere near the Super Bowl again, but if Minnesota can do to Brady for the whole game what they did to Brees for a half, sign me up for that. It would almost be worth it to listen to WEEI for a week or two and hear all of the Southies lose their crap.Verdict: This is the game that I really want to see.

Most Likely Scenario (42.35%) – Patriots vs Eagles

Brady vs. Foles. Really? I mean, we’ve heard that the Eagles have just as good a defense as the Vikings and they sort of proved it by shutting down Atlanta for the whole game instead of just a half. I’m just not as excited about the possibility of Nick Foles being in the Super Bowl as not only did I become a fan of the Vikings defense, but I think I might have a slight man crush on Case Keenum now.Verdict:Other than Pats fans who just want that ring (baby!), does anyone really want to see this game happen?

My Pick

I already told you that I want Pats and Vikes. I also think that this is the game that is likely to happen. First, Nick Foles is not Drew Brees. I’m pretty sure that Minnesota can shut him down for an entire game instead of just the half. Also, as Bill Simmons mentioned in his emergency podast to discuss the past weekend games, the Vikings have the stink of destiny on them. They won that Saints game in impossible fashion. They could become the first team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. It just feels right. You may notice that I didn’t even mention the Pats/Jags game. In spite of his shredding of my woefully unprepared Steelers team, Blake Bortles isn’t doing the same to a Bill Belichick prepared team.

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Completely Ignorant NFL Divisional Round Preview

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A Note about the CFP Championship Game: I watched the first half and part of the second half (right up until when Alabama’s freshman quarterback threw his interception) with a friend before proclaiming the game over after that interception. I thought I was going to go home to get some sleep because I had a substitute job the next day. Instead, I laid on the couch for about a half an hour or so until I tuned back into the game to see it tied. I then watched the missed FG and overtime.

The final play of the game got me off of my couch and cheering. I was excited both for the freshman QB from Hawai’i (I apologize for not writing his name, but I don’t even know how to spell it and I want to be intellectually honest about it) and that our pick was correct. I texted my friend asking how he felt about it. He remains bitter about Nick Saban, so we had a bit of a back and forth about referees and how that is always the lament of the loser (my response). He accused me of being an Alabama fan due to my excitement about the win. Hey, I’m just happy that I got something right in football after doing rather poorly in the Wild Card round and CFP semifinals. Can’t wait until next year and the Return of the Jedi.

Introduction

You will just have to trust me that I wrote this last night and only got around to typing it today. It might looks a bit suspicious when I go 4-0. I went 2-2 last week. I got the Jaguars and Saints right, but missed on the Rams and Chiefs. George went 3-1, kind of lending some credibility to my habit of calling it coin flip weekend. He only missed on the Panthers, but they almost came back. We are going to retire George for the rest of the season since this is when things start to go more according to expectations. We might bring him back to see his famous cousin star in the Super Bowl and hopefully this is the season that we both lose a ton of money and respect by picking every single game during the season.

The Picks

Titans at Patriots (Saturday at 8:15 pm): Andy Reid Andy Reided all over the Tennessee/Kansas City game last week and one team that would seem to have no business in the playoffs advanced to play New England this weekend. Chris and I were texting and, in our not so professional opinion, Tennessee has absolutely no chance of winning this game. now that there is this stupid ESPN article about the Patriots in fighting over Jimmy G-sus (thanks Cousin Sal!) is out, they are going to most likely be in full “Eff you” mode. I already thought they would win the Super Bowl again this year, but now it is virtually certain. Dammit. Alabama and New England in the same year?

Jaguars at Steelers (Sunday at 1:05 pm): Buffalo was only in the playoffs because the NFL decided that six teams is the right number for their playoff format. Jacksonville was only in the playoffs because there has to be a winner in each of the 4 divisions in the playoffs. They showed last week that they are quite possibly the 2 least qualified playoff teams in recent memory. Chris and I give them a marginally better chance than Tennessee only because they beat the Steelers in September, which is little more than extended preseason. I get to watch the Steelers get blown out by the Patriots in the AFC Championship game again. Yay for me.

Falcons at Eagles (Saturday at 4:35 pm): There is no love lost between me and Philadelphia. However, even I’m a bit sad at how their season played out. If not for the Wentz injury, I’d probably have them as the favorite. Playing Nick Foles in a playoff game is not anyone’s idea of a winning strategy. Earlier in the week, I figured Atlanta might just blow them out. However, I’ve been convinced by more recent arguments that Philadelphia might be able to hang. I don’t think they win, but it should be a good game, at least.

Saints at Vikings (Sunday at 4:40 pm): I said last week that I’d have liked to have seen Panthers/Saints as an NFC Championship game. We now have a good possibility of two NFC South teams making it. The Vikings are good but they, too, are starting a backup quarterback in the playoffs. I’m less confident in Case Keenum than I am in Nick Foles. He’s played more this season and Minnesota has a great defense, though, and a decent running game, so I’m more confident to pick them to win.

Wrap Up

More and more likely it is looking like we will see a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl again this year. Many people are actually calling for it. Granted, it might be a compelling game for most, but I have no interest in watching it. Then again, I won’t watch it at all as we will have our annual Lucas-Mullen No Super Bowl Watch Party, so I guess let NFL fans eat their cake.