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Betting the Bowl 2024

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Introduction

I started this series last year in a completely fictional sense. Then, after the Super Bowl played out, Fan Duel went live in Massachusetts. I took the 200 dollars they gave me and turned it into 1000. Then, I got stupid and lost it all. Oh well, let that be a lesson to us all. Bet virtual money as if it was real money because, hell, it actually is. Living in the future is weird. Even with all of that, I intend to stick to my mantra of not betting on a game where the ball bounces funny, so Betting the Bowl 2024 exists only on the internet.

Ridiculous Prop Bets for Super Bowl 58

Coin Toss

I went on a bit of a rant last year about the coin toss. While this represents probably the safest bet in all of gambling, I can’t bring myself to accept that anyone actually bets this thing with any conviction.

Gatorade Color

They zagged last year with purple. I put virtual money on either green or yellow with some money on red because those were the colors of the teams. Now, I’m thinking that they zagged to rake in that easy money from dopes like me who think they know something about something. Which now makes me think that they might zig this time since purple hit a few times over the last few years.

Scorigami

I saw this in an article that I searched for prop bets. Ever since visiting the page after several mentions on my favorite sports podcast, I became somewhat obsessed with Scorigami. It’s when a score occurs that never occurred before. While there’s a low chance, 25 to 1 is nothing to sneeze at. I’d throw five bucks that way.

Single Dollar Picks

Stealing yet another Bill Simmons idea, I came up with single dollar picks for last year’s article. He has million dollar picks. I have single dollar picks. Last year, I bet 1 dollar and won back 94 cents, so I have 1.94 to play with this year.

Surest Bet (KC to win the first half): The Chefs MO against the Rats in the AFC Championship was to come out firing and then just slowly squeeze the life out of them in the second half. And it worked. Add to the fact that Brock Purdy’s been slow starting games and that just makes sense to me. Plus, it’s even money and you can parlay for better odds on another ticket. Bet: 0.39 cents to win 0.38.

Game/MVP Parlay (SF/Purdy, KC/Mahomes): I cleaned up a few years ago with the Kupp MVP selection, but it’s usually a quarterback. KC/Mahomes pays +350 and SF/Purdy gives +514. Either way, you make money. Only possible spoiler I see i Kelce getting 3 TDs. 0.25 on each to win 0.88 with Mahomes or 1.29 with Purdy.

Taking the Number Here (Kelce to score first TD): He’s 7.5 to one to get it done. If KC wins the toss, defers, and stones SF on their first drive, I can see Mahomes leaning on Kelce and him scoring. Bet: 0.10 to win back 0.75.

I gotta be honest here. I’m not terribly inspired to write this article right now and I can’t find any bets that interest me other than those ones. So, I’m pocketing my winnings from last year and I’ll finish up with the Perplexing Penny Parlay.

Perplexing Penny Parlay

Last year, I put together a parlay that paid out over 100 dollars on a single penny bet. I also wanted the bet to be somewhat plausible. That worked out to 5 out of the 7 legs hitting and me feeling pretty good about myself. I think I said I might shoot for 1 million this year, but maybe I’ll just add one zero for Betting the Bowl 2024.

Chiefs First Half (-102)

Chiefs Game (+100)

Under 47.5 (-110)

Patrick Mahomes MVP (+125)

Travis Kelce First TD (+750)

Travis Kelce Most Receptions (+155)

Longest TD Under 1.5 Yards (-160)

Scorigami (+2000)

Total Payout of 125.83 on a penny bet. Getting to 1000 proved to be too hard this year, so as 31 teams find themselves saying every year, “Wait until next year.” Maybe I will have more inspiration then.

The Verdict

Last year I watched the Super Bowl with my father in law. This year, he invited me again to watch with my brother in law. Then, Chris and Jason invited me over. Then, my father in law invited m y wife and sister in law. I think that all of this social time is inhibiting my interest in betting the bowl 2024. Instead, I just want to sit and watch with my family this year.

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2024 NFL Conference Championships Countdown

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Introduction

Way back in January of last year, I covered the Super Bowl from a fan standpoint and one of a potentially degenerate gambler. While I never developed the gambling habit, I still enjoyed parts of this season and the text chains that Jason, Chris, and I wrote in response. In the past, I covered every round of the playoffs. Sometimes I forgot and only wrote about the Super Bowl. This year, inspired by the Lions and their unlikely appearance and my dime that I put on the Ravens at +140 at the beginning of the playoffs, I’ll take some time to talk about the 2024 NFL Conference Championships.

2024 NFC Conference Championship: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

Why I’d root for the 49ers: They just get shit done. In spite of the hype about the Eagles at the beginning of the season and the Cowboys at the beginning of the playoffs, here they are again with a chance to play in their 8th Super Bowl and their 3rd in the last ten years. Plus, how can you not root for an underdog quarterback taken late in the draft. Unless his name is Tom Brady. Eff that guy.

Why I’d root for the Lions: I mean, isn’t this one obvious? Other than the Browns and Bills and, maybe even including them, the Lions fans are some of the most long suffering in the league. They had Barry freaking Sanders for 10 years and were only able to win one playoff game in that time. I mean, before the Bills had their hearts ripped out again, I wanted Detroit and Buffalo for the first time winners bowl. Alas, we can still get the Lions.

2024 AFC Conference Championship: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens

Why I’d root for the *dry heave* Ravens: The bet. Really, that’s it. Eh, I guess I kinda like Lamar, too. Otherwise, screw the zombie Browns.

Why I’d root for the Chiefs: Those who frequent the page often know there’s only one answer to this one, too. Mahomes. Literally, that’s it. I still love the guy in spite of everything and refuse to join the mob that builds people up just to tear them down. Okay, I do kinda like the Kelce/T-Swizzle storyline, too. I mostly just like how upset it makes big tough football dudes.

The Verdict

The 2024 NFL Conference Championships are much less interesting without the Bills. But, I do have the dime on the Ravens and the hope that the Lions can pull off the win against the 49ers. Come back after the games for our post mortem and then the Super Bowl preview.

Note: All teams and the single logo used on this web page are the property of the NFL. They are used without consent (written or otherwise), but only in good fun. If you’re feeling litigious, please refrain from throwing your vast legal resources at this small page that caters to my kids, Chris (Hi Chris!) and about 25 Russian bots (Hi Sergei!).

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2022 NFL Conference Championships: Good, Better, Best

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Introduction

Finally, we arrived at the 2022 NFl Conference Championships. This last week felt like it took forever. I covered that already in my last post. I want to use this one to celebrat two posts in two days. The only problem is that, unless I write much faster than my usual pace, this post will go live after at least the Chiefs/Bungs start. All I can do is promise that (even though I have fake money on the games), I will keep from watching the games if I intend to make predictions.

Generally, I don’t make predictions, though. It’s a bit of a miracle that I put even fake money on the games. Dad always said don’t bet on a game where the ball bounces funny. But, I suppose I’ve been listening to too much Simmons and especially Sal and they influenced me. But, I made 2000 fake dollars last week, so maybe I fly to Vegas for the Super Bowl.

2022 NFL Conference Championships (The Mahomes Scale)

A few years ago, I put together a Mahomes scale. I think either it was a modification of the Brady scale or the Brady scale was a modification of the Mahomes scale. In either case, whenever we get to the conference Championships, I rank each matchup by how excited I am to watch them. Obviously, you want more Mahomes (and, by extension less Brady) because he’s quite possibly the most exciting player in the league right now.

Author’s Note: The Chiefs automatically rank as 7 Mahomes. After last week, the Bills get 5 as well. So, a perfect rank on the Mahomes scale is 12 now instead of 10. If Josh Allen improves anymore, we might have to adjust the scale accordingly.

I would watch the f**k out of this

Super Bowl LVI: Cincinnati/San Francisco (0 Mahomes)

I can’t think of a more boring game that this one. Sure, Joe Burrow can be exciting, but the 49ers defense would most likely smother the Cincy offense. I see this one being 13-9 or something along those lines and Bosa becoming only the second defensive player to win MVP. Hold on, let me check those odds. Okay, I’m back. Put 10 bucks to win over 4000 just for giggles. Also, I’m worried because several have made the point that the first Cincy/SF Super Bowl was Madden’s first and he just died. The NFL loves that sentimental bullshit.

Super Bowl LVI: Cincinnati/Los Angeles Rams (3 Mahomes)

If you told me two years ago that Matt Stafford would rank 3 on the Mahomes scale, I’d have either (a) figured that 90% of the league folded or (b) found a way to put a futures bet in for the Lions to win the Super Bowl this year. Maybe both. But, and I reserve the right to change my mind at any point about this, I like Rams Matt Stafford. He’s certainly come a long way from being the butt of my “he’s still in the league” jokes from a few years ago. That’s for sure.

Super Bowl LVI: Kansas City/San Francisco (7 Mahomes)

Okay, now we’re talking. We get Mahomes. We get a rematch from 2 Super Bowls ago. The Frisco defense might be able to keep Mahomes in check, but he always finds a way. Dr. Ian Malcolm warned us. Now we live with the consequences. At least they are mostly positive consequences, like his ultimate “Forgot About Dre” game last week.

Super Bowl LVI: Kansas City/Los Angeles Rams (10 Mahomes)

Aside from the dream match up of watching Mahomes and Allen go at it for 7 games (heck, I’d even settle for 5) and a grand total of 84 (or 60) Mahomes, this is the next best thing. Of the two quarterbacks left in the NFC, the only one I see hanging with Mahomes is Stafford. If the football gods are listening, please make this happen.

The Verdict

The only matchup I hate and never want to see is Cincinnati/San Francisco. Though, I will say, if that parlay hits, I win 2000 fake collars. So, that along with being one of the only games where I cheer for the Bengals almost makes it worth maybe 1 Mahomes in retrospect I’ll take that into consideration and maybe adjust accordingly.

Note: All teams and the single logo used on this web page are the property of the NFL. They are used without consent (written or otherwise), but only in good fun. If you’re feeling litigious, please refrain from throwing your vast legal resources at this small page that caters to my kids, Chris (Hi Chris!) and about 25 Russian bots (Hi Sergei!).