Post Mortem on the Divisional Round (and the elephant in the room that is my Steelers)

Not much to say about the Patriots game. I was 100% correct on that one. I was about 50% correct on the Eagles vs. Falcons game as that game was more or less a toss up during the Falcons last possession of the game. I was dead wrong about the Steelers game and I don’t even know how to score the Vikings game since they went from about a 22% chance to win to over 98% chance to win after that touchdown. What it all boils down to is a 2-2 record in the divisional round and overall 4-4 for the playoffs.

Okay, let’s talk about my Steelers. I tuned the game out at halftime and then we went over to visit Christine’s parents. My father in law said to me as I walked into the house, “Tie game.” I responded with the appropriate shocked reaction and then learned that the Steelers were actually down by 7 points. Well, that was enough to hook me for the rest of the game. I’m sorry that I did. That was a pathetic display against what we were told by all of the experts was an inferior team led by a subpar quarterback. I can accept being beaten by the Patriots (no, I can’t), but to continually lose every year with the amount of talent they have is unacceptable.

I was texting with Chris during the game and my assessment was, “I like Tomlin, but that game was an abomination. It might be time to start talking about him going.” It was in the heat of the moment and I’ve had some time to cool off. I don’t feel any different. I know that nothing will come of it, but maybe they will at least make an example out of Haley? Who am I kidding? I’ll meet you back here next year, just as dejected as I am right now.

NFL Championship Weekend

Now, for this weekend. I’m going to do things a little bit differently here. (a) Because I’m a math nerd and I have to get my brain ready for the new semester, (b) because sometimes I just like to switch things up every now and then, and (c) we all know that the Patriots are going to repeat as champions this year, so why not have some fun this weekend. I’ve looked up the probabilities for each team to make the Super Bowl atPlayoff Statusand used those to figure out the probabilities of each match up for the Super Bowl. I will analyze each of those from least to most likely and then make my pick at the end. Hope this works!

Least Likely Matchup(10.35%) – Jaguars vs. Vikings

The Jaguars are massive underdogs to the Patriots this week and the Vikings are just below a coin toss at the Eagles. I’m rooting for the Jags for two reasons. First, eff the Pats. Second, long ago my dad instilled in me that you want to root for the team that beat you because then you can soothe your wounds by saying at least you lost to the champs. When the Pats usually beat the Steelers, these two are at odds with one another. Not so far this year. Watching the Vikings dismantle Drew Brees and the Saints for a half after watching the debacle that was my Steelers makes them my new favorite team.Verdict: I guess you could say that my heart wishes for this one.

Only Slightly More Likely (12.65%) – Jaguars vs. Eagles

Considering I never thought either of these two teams would even sniff the conference championships, you could say that I’m surprised that this is even a possibility, let alone the fact that it happens in about 1/8 universes that are currently in existence. The schadenfreude in me wants to see exactly what they’d talk about in the 2 weeks leading to the game and then in the 12 hours of pregame on the actual day of the game. Nevermind, I know. It would be all about Blake Bortles, World Beater. Get in line, hosers, he got me a championship first.Verdict: Nobody wishes for this horror show of a game.

Happens In Over a Third of Possible Universes (34.65%) – Patriots vs. Vikings

After my Steelers lost, I was in quite the tizzy. I went from wanting to see Brady vs. Brees to wanting to see Minnesota’s defense against Brady. I may have settled on that last one. I don’t want Tom Brady anywhere near the Super Bowl again, but if Minnesota can do to Brady for the whole game what they did to Brees for a half, sign me up for that. It would almost be worth it to listen to WEEI for a week or two and hear all of the Southies lose their crap.Verdict: This is the game that I really want to see.

Most Likely Scenario (42.35%) – Patriots vs Eagles

Brady vs. Foles. Really? I mean, we’ve heard that the Eagles have just as good a defense as the Vikings and they sort of proved it by shutting down Atlanta for the whole game instead of just a half. I’m just not as excited about the possibility of Nick Foles being in the Super Bowl as not only did I become a fan of the Vikings defense, but I think I might have a slight man crush on Case Keenum now.Verdict:Other than Pats fans who just want that ring (baby!), does anyone really want to see this game happen?

My Pick

I already told you that I want Pats and Vikes. I also think that this is the game that is likely to happen. First, Nick Foles is not Drew Brees. I’m pretty sure that Minnesota can shut him down for an entire game instead of just the half. Also, as Bill Simmons mentioned in his emergency podast to discuss the past weekend games, the Vikings have the stink of destiny on them. They won that Saints game in impossible fashion. They could become the first team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. It just feels right. You may notice that I didn’t even mention the Pats/Jags game. In spite of his shredding of my woefully unprepared Steelers team, Blake Bortles isn’t doing the same to a Bill Belichick prepared team.