Over the weekend, I filled some time and virtual space with a quick article about the NFL championship weekend. I mainly wrote because I put a dime on the Ravens at the beginning of the playoffs at plus 140 to win the AFC Championship and wanted to see if my bet paid off. I should have known better. Used to be don’t bet against Tom Brady. Now, it’s definitely don’t bet against Patrick Mahomes. Chris reiterated this with his text after the game, “So this is how people felt about the Pats, eh?” No spoilers, but with the Lions loss, too, this 2024 NFL Conference Championships Celebration might feel a bit muted.
AFC Championship: Chefs Humiliate the Rats
I knew early that I needed to hedge that Ravens bet. They answered quickly to the first Chiefs touchdown, but they looked clearly outmatched in this game. At halftime, I texted Chris, “Looks like the Chefs were playing dead before the playoffs.” He agreed and I put in a parlay with the Chiefs and 49ers to win.
The thing is, I’m not unhappy because I can’t stand the Ravens otherwise. Additionally, I love Mahomes and Andy Reid started to grow on me with the State Farm commercials. Besides, Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl might just break parts of the internet. So, I am honestly happy with the outcome of the game.
I think that most of my malaise came from the participants in the game. Last week, I convinced myself that the NFL wrote the script for the Bills and Lions to finally break through and bring a first-time winner bowl. Alas, they teased me with the Lions and ripped the hearts out of Bills fans once again.
I texted the group chat, “Dear God, the curse of Buffalo continues.”
NFC Championship: How to Frame this Game?
I only checked the score every now and then, so I have no idea what actually happened in this game. Chris texted me early, “Detroit showed up to play” and I considered hedging my earlier parlay when I saw the 14-0 score. I figured I’d just let it ride for now because something told me that things might just turn around.
Sure enough, the 49ers came roaring back and led by 10 late. Detroit scored a late touchdown but didn’t get the onside kick for a chance at the game tying field goal. Whenever you have one of these games, you need to ask yourself, “What happened?” Detroit puckered in the big lights? San Francisco just enforced their championship pedigree?
I just read the ESPN article about the game and it looks like a little bit of both. Frisco won doing what they do best. Detroit lost because they failed to do what they do best. And, so, an easy narrative (so loved by our internet culture) is insufficient to explain the game. As Brock Purdy said, “That’s just football.”
The Verdict
I wrote about last year’s Super Bowl that Patriots fans are starting to become self aware about them and their team. With the recent Chiefs success, they were quite confused. I hate that team, but I kind of enjoy what they’re doing. I’m not there yet with the Chiefs, but I am experiencing some fatigue surrounding the team. And, so I apologize that this 2024 NFL Conference Championships Celebration is muted. Besides, as Dad always said, “Don’t bet on a game where the ball bounces funny.”
Note: All teams and the single logo used on this web page are the property of the NFL. They are used without consent (written or otherwise), but only in good fun. If you’re feeling litigious, please refrain from throwing your vast legal resources at this small page that caters to my kids, Chris (Hi Chris!) and about 25 Russian bots (Hi Sergei!).
Way back in January of last year, I covered the Super Bowl from a fan standpoint and one of a potentially degenerate gambler. While I never developed the gambling habit, I still enjoyed parts of this season and the text chains that Jason, Chris, and I wrote in response. In the past, I covered every round of the playoffs. Sometimes I forgot and only wrote about the Super Bowl. This year, inspired by the Lions and their unlikely appearance and my dime that I put on the Ravens at +140 at the beginning of the playoffs, I’ll take some time to talk about the 2024 NFL Conference Championships.
2024 NFC Conference Championship: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Why I’d root for the 49ers: They just get shit done. In spite of the hype about the Eagles at the beginning of the season and the Cowboys at the beginning of the playoffs, here they are again with a chance to play in their 8th Super Bowl and their 3rd in the last ten years. Plus, how can you not root for an underdog quarterback taken late in the draft. Unless his name is Tom Brady. Eff that guy.
Why I’d root for the Lions: I mean, isn’t this one obvious? Other than the Browns and Bills and, maybe even including them, the Lions fans are some of the most long suffering in the league. They had Barry freaking Sanders for 10 years and were only able to win one playoff game in that time. I mean, before the Bills had their hearts ripped out again, I wanted Detroit and Buffalo for the first time winners bowl. Alas, we can still get the Lions.
2024 AFC Conference Championship: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
Why I’d root for the *dry heave* Ravens: The bet. Really, that’s it. Eh, I guess I kinda like Lamar, too. Otherwise, screw the zombie Browns.
Why I’d root for the Chiefs: Those who frequent the page often know there’s only one answer to this one, too. Mahomes. Literally, that’s it. I still love the guy in spite of everything and refuse to join the mob that builds people up just to tear them down. Okay, I do kinda like the Kelce/T-Swizzle storyline, too. I mostly just like how upset it makes big tough football dudes.
The Verdict
The 2024 NFL Conference Championships are much less interesting without the Bills. But, I do have the dime on the Ravens and the hope that the Lions can pull off the win against the 49ers. Come back after the games for our post mortem and then the Super Bowl preview.
Note: All teams and the single logo used on this web page are the property of the NFL. They are used without consent (written or otherwise), but only in good fun. If you’re feeling litigious, please refrain from throwing your vast legal resources at this small page that caters to my kids, Chris (Hi Chris!) and about 25 Russian bots (Hi Sergei!).
I think that Chris missed my article this week about the NFL Conference Championships 2021. He texted yesterday to ask my picks for the Super Bowl. I know we talked about it at the end of the wild card round and I told him Kansas City vs. Green Bay. Maybe he wanted to see if I changed my mind.
Spoiler Alert: I didn’t change my mind.
I responded, “I want to see KC/TB, but Brady still has that mojo even if he isn’t very good.” He replied that he wanted to see the same. I hopefully texted back, “The solace is that Brady faced Brees, who is clearly on his last leg. At this point, Rodgers is the superior quarterback.” He agreed. So, since that’s settled, what will I write in this article.
A couple of years ago, I ranked the potential Super Bowls according to an extremely scientific “Eff the Pats” scale. Since the Patriots sucked out loud this year without Brady, I won’t have to implement that scale. I don’t hate Brady as an individual. He only offended me in his unholy union with Belichick. Maybe I should use a “Mahomes Magic” scale. It’s just the “Eff the Pats” scale, but positive. Everyone, send your magic to the Chefs for tomorrow. Chad Henne did okay last week, but I need Mahomes. Continue to read my thoughts on the NFL Conference Championships 2021.
Bills/Bucs – 0 Mahomes Magic
Technically, Bills/Packers is 0 Mahomes Magic, too. However, I will explain in the next section why that isn’t true. This game is, for sure, 0 Mahomes Magic, though. No actual Mahomes. We do get discount Mahomes in Josh Allen. However, if he beats the Chefs, I would be too bitter to enjoy watching him play in the Super Bowl.
Add in the fact that I’d have to watch another Tom Brady Super Bowl and you have a recipe for a potential emotional breakdown. Granted, I just admitted that I don’t hate Brady as a player or even as a person (but he does seem like kind of a trash person sometimes). Not wanting to see Brady again fits into my “been there, done that” box. Plus, the media would simply fellate Brady for the entire two weeks leading to the Super Bowl. It’s enough to make me dry heave.
Bills/Packers – 3 Mahomes Magic
How, without Mahomes even in the game, does it receive any Mahomes Magic, let alone three? Patience. I told you I will explain and I will. Granted, this scenario lacks Patrick Mahomes, as mentioned. However, it also lacks any mention of TB12, too. For me, the addition of Rodgers at the subtraction of Brady is an automatic +3 Mahomes Magic.
I always liked Rodgers. Even when I used to be a bigger Steelers fan and his Packers beat them in the Super Bowl, I shrugged and tipped my hat to the man. Ever since reading the article a few weeks ago that he has thrown only 89 picks in his career. Okay, pause a moment after that last stat because this next one is the real mind screw. He’s thrown 3 (yes, 3) pick sixes. Five guys, including our man Hall of Famer Eli Manning, has throw 3 in a game.
Watching Rodgers eviscerate the Bills defense would put my mind at ease that they beat Mahomes to get there.
Chiefs/Bucs – 5 Mahomes Magic
I mean, let’s be real. Mahomes is worth 10 Mahomes Magic by himself. However, I said I would be consistent to the other scale, so he’s just an automatic 5. Not even Brady is enough to knock that dew off of the lily. Add to the fact that Mahomes beat Brady 3 out of the 4 times they’ve played and I have full confidence in him doing it again.
Sure, there’s the possibility of Brady fellating as mentioned earlier. However, Mahomes Magic easily eclipses anything that Brady brings to the table. Plus, watching that sad old man trip over his walker while the young and virile Patrick Mahomes smile his way through 4 or 5 TDs and another Super Bowl MVP is enough to make a man swoon.
Chiefs/Packers – 8 Mahomes Magic
Mahomes. No Brady in sight. Rodgers. Endless State Farm commercials. What more can you ask for? Nothing. This might be the most perfect Super Bowl matchup in history. If it doesn’t happen, I’m going to simulate it 25,000 times to assuage my hurt. So, if either the Bills or Bucs win, get ready for 70 years of “Super Bowl LV – How It Should Have Been”.
The Verdict
Seriously, though, any outcome of the NFL Conference Championships 2021 is okay with me. Besides, we never actually watch the game. We started a tradition maybe a decade ago now where we watch all of the movies from a franchise on Super Bowl day while still eating the standard Super Bowl fare of appetizers. In honor of Cobra Kai, this year it will be The Karate Kid series. Hey, don’t blame me. Christine came up with the idea. I’d be happy simply rewatching Cobra Kai.
Note: All teams and the single logo used on this web page are the property of the NFL. They are used without consent (written or otherwise), but only in good fun. If you’re feeling litigious, please refrain from throwing your vast legal resources at this small page that caters to my kids, Chris (Hi Chris!) and about 25 Russian bots (Hi Sergei!).
We are in that weird time in the NFL season where they inexplicably take a week off between their conference championships and the Super Bowl. ‘At least they haven’t gotten as crazy as the NCAA who has a month in between the final games of the season and their National Championship game. ‘Also, they got smart a few years ago and put the Pro Bowl on this weekend. ‘So, there is at least football happening. ‘It’s an exhibition game, but still fun to watch. ‘The added benefit is that because the Patriots almost always make the Super Bowl, I don’t have to watch any of them in the Pro Bowl. ‘I have to find the positive of the Patriots always making the Super Bowl.
Vikings/Eagles
There isn’t much to say about this game. ‘I got it completely wrong. ‘First, I thought the Vikings would win. ‘Nope. ‘Second, I thought it would at least be a close game. ‘Nope. ‘I honestly don’t know what happened or how the Eagles blew them out because I was so burned out on football after watching the latest episode of “Tom Brady Hulks Out” that I paid absolutely no attention to this game.
I was listening to Simmons and Sal this morning for during my commute and they talked a little bit about how the Viking could have won the game if only a few things had gone differently. ‘I know that sounds weird with the final score as lopsided as it was, but if you watch sports, you understand. ‘I used to have a Steelers web page and for every game recap I had a section called “5 big plays” in which I highlighted the plays that I thought contributed to the outcome of the game. ‘Apparently, Simmons and Sal studied my old web page while putting together their notes for this show.
I will try not to break my hand.
I will just chalk this one up to recency bias. ‘I hadn’t watched a single Vikings game all year and then I watched the first half of their playoff game against the Saints. ‘I had also heard most of the year how dominant their defense was this year. ‘I put those things together along with Nick Foles instead of Carson Wentz as the Eagle quarterback and I came up with a Viking win. ‘Hey, I do promise that these things are done out of complete ignorance.
Truth be told, the Eagles might have been worse off with Wentz at QB. ‘I know that he’s not strictly a rookie, but he might as well have been. ‘The playoffs traditionally (as long as you aren’t playing an overconfident Steelers or Saints team) don’t favor inexperienced quarterbacks, so who knows what would have happened if Wentz hadn’t gotten hurt. ‘I think we all know that the one constant is that the Philly fans would have rioted.
A Note About “Eff the Pats”
I was talking to a colleague yesterday afternoon in between classes. ‘We got on the topic of football and she mentioned how much she liked to watch it on television. ‘I hedged a bit because I do live in New England, they just won a big game, everyone is happy, and I am most certainly not. ‘So, I said, “I like to watch college.” ‘She replied, “I like to watch any football, but there is one team that I absolutely will not watch.” ‘Oh boy, I thought, she’s going to get me to admit that I hate the Patriots and this conversation will end awkwardly.
More at 11…
I took a deep breath and jumped right in. ‘”Me, too,” I said, “and the problem is that I just happen to live right in the middle of where they are located.” ‘Her eyes narrowed. ‘”Wait, do you not like the Patriots?” ‘I shrugged. ‘Here it goes. ‘”Nope.” ‘She held out a hand and I flinched because I thought she might pretend to slap me. ‘When I recovered, she was still holding her hand up. ‘It all clicked. ‘She wanted me to high five her. ‘She was in the same boat as I was.
We commiserated about our Patriots hatred and how it was all so misunderstood by the Patriots “fans” in our lives. ‘”Oh, you’re so bitter because they just win everything.” ‘”You’re just jealous because they always beat your team.” And, my favorite, “You hate us because you ain’t us.” ‘Yes, that must be it. ‘Hey, if you want to have a valid conversation about why I hate the Patriots, then we can. ‘If you are going to reply to me with generalities and memes in any conversation, I’m going to assume you don’t have the necessary brain functions to hold a conversation and I’m just going to walk away.
As the picture above (which, yes, is a meme, so just walk away) indicates, I have always hated the Patriots. ‘The seed for my hatred might be a bit silly and I’ve never been able to properly explain it especially to Patriots fans, but who knows what causes something to lock into the brain of a slightly sports obsessed preteen boy. ‘Heck, I remember praying to a God that I didn’t believe to help the Michigan Fab Five win a college basketball game. ‘If you are really concerned about my Patriots hatred, the seed is this story‘that I read one night from the Football Hall of Shame.
It’s a good book and there are some funny stories, but the dark nature of that particular event has just stayed with me for 30+ years.
As I said to Chris (an actual Patriots fan and one of the few people that I feel bad about expressing my hatred around) today, the universe just has a sense of humor. ‘It has seen fit to drop me in the middle of Patriots country during their rise to power. ‘It makes me look like one of the bitter Steelers fans. ‘I am, to some extent, but I’m also a complex person. ‘I’ve seen the Steelers go to 3 Super Bowls and win 2. ‘I’ve seen Antonio Brown channel Lynn Swann. ‘Don’t worry about me. ‘I’m good. ‘This isn’t about some silly “rivalry”. ‘This hate flows deep and long. ‘That’s what she said.
Jaguars/Patriots
Patriots fans: ‘What suspense! ‘What drama!
Me: ‘What suspense? ‘What drama?
Right after the game, I texted my friend Craig, “It’s always the same script. ‘Seriously, how does anyone root for this stupid team.” ‘He tried to get me going because that’s what he does, but I just shut him down with, “I’m done with this sham of a league.” ‘Because, seriously, did anyone really think this game was going to end any differently?
How many of these “once in a lifetime” comebacks do you have to see before you know the ending, Patriots fans? ‘Chris, making fun of me, texted, “Hmm I’�ll write it for you, they cheat, deflate footballs, Bill is Emperor Palpatine, ..etc. lol sound about right?” ‘I replied, “I don’t write for ESPN.”
I already used my hack Star Wars metaphor for Alabama.
Besides, the Patriots saga is more like Game of Thrones or The Walking Dead. ‘Now, I haven’t watched a minute of Game of Thrones and I stopped watching The Walking Dead years ago. ‘However, I keep my finger on the pulse of pop culture just enough to understand the basic plot of these two shows. ‘They manipulate their viewers to start to think that their favorite characters maybe, just maybe, will survive the latest onslaught, only to pull the rug out from under them at the end of the episode with “the most thrilling ending ever!” ‘”You just have to see this! ‘Don’t let social media spoil this for you!” ‘The Patriots do the exact same damn thing every single game. ‘I don’t hate them for this. ‘I just find it boring.
One last point. ‘During my conversation yesterday, the topic of “tin foil hat conspiracy theories” came up. ‘I’m not going to go too Cigarette Smoking Man on you right now. ‘I’m going to save that for after the Super Bowl. ‘Inspired by one of my conversations with Chris, I have a story that I went full X-Files with. ‘I want to flesh it out a bit and have some fun with it. ‘Look for it in a couple of weeks.
But, if you read it, we may have to kill you.
Because I don’t have television and I’m not going to go out of my way to get consistently punched in the gut until I become immune to it, I didn’t actually watch the Jaguars/Patriots game. ‘I kept an eye on it via GameCenter. ‘At no point did I ever think the Jaguars would win the game. ‘Even as Chris was admitting to being a bit nervous because the Jags were up 10, I knew the Patriots would come back. ‘There’s no way the NFL would allow the Jags in the Super Bowl. ‘That just wouldn’t happen.
And here’s where I start to get fitted for my tin foil hat and I start to sound like the “hate us because you ain’t us” crowd. ‘I’m not going to accuse the NFL of a conspiracy (except, you know, I just kind of did), but I find it odd. ‘I did watch the entire second half of the Steelers game and watched an injured Antonio Brown make a circus catch because one of the Jaguars was draped all over him like a cape. ‘Brown scored the TD, so it didn’t matter, but as we’ve seen time and time again, games change on pass interference calls. ‘It changed the tide of Saints/Vikings.
Look I get that the referees didn’t give up 42 points to the Jags. ‘The referees didn’t overlook an inferior team. ‘I just find it odd. ‘A team that only received ‘3 penalties for 40 yards against the Steelers suddenly imploded against the Patriots and got 98 penalty yards on 6 penalties. ‘Meanwhile, the Steelers got 3 penalties for 25 yards (so comparable), while the Patriots committed only 1 penalty for 10 yards. ‘It’s just odd.
NFL! Goodell! Kraft! Brady! Trump! Putin! RUSSIA!
Because I’m bound by an imaginary contract (that I wrote, amended, and signed), I will do a Super Bowl spectacular next week. ‘I’m not in the least bit excited about it. ‘As a Steelers fan and a lifelong Patriots hater, choosing which team I want to win is like deciding whether to saw off my leg and bleed to death or let the rot slowly spread to infect my entire body.
Post Mortem on the Divisional Round (and the elephant in the room that is my Steelers)
Not much to say about the Patriots game. I was 100% correct on that one. I was about 50% correct on the Eagles vs. Falcons game as that game was more or less a toss up during the Falcons last possession of the game. I was dead wrong about the Steelers game and I don’t even know how to score the Vikings game since they went from about a 22% chance to win to over 98% chance to win after that touchdown. What it all boils down to is a 2-2 record in the divisional round and overall 4-4 for the playoffs.
Okay, let’s talk about my Steelers. I tuned the game out at halftime and then we went over to visit Christine’s parents. My father in law said to me as I walked into the house, “Tie game.” I responded with the appropriate shocked reaction and then learned that the Steelers were actually down by 7 points. Well, that was enough to hook me for the rest of the game. I’m sorry that I did. That was a pathetic display against what we were told by all of the experts was an inferior team led by a subpar quarterback. I can accept being beaten by the Patriots (no, I can’t), but to continually lose every year with the amount of talent they have is unacceptable.
I was texting with Chris during the game and my assessment was, “I like Tomlin, but that game was an abomination. It might be time to start talking about him going.” It was in the heat of the moment and I’ve had some time to cool off. I don’t feel any different. I know that nothing will come of it, but maybe they will at least make an example out of Haley? Who am I kidding? I’ll meet you back here next year, just as dejected as I am right now.
NFL Championship Weekend
Now, for this weekend. I’m going to do things a little bit differently here. (a) Because I’m a math nerd and I have to get my brain ready for the new semester, (b) because sometimes I just like to switch things up every now and then, and (c) we all know that the Patriots are going to repeat as champions this year, so why not have some fun this weekend. I’ve looked up the probabilities for each team to make the Super Bowl atPlayoff Statusand used those to figure out the probabilities of each match up for the Super Bowl. I will analyze each of those from least to most likely and then make my pick at the end. Hope this works!
Least Likely Matchup(10.35%) – Jaguars vs. Vikings
The Jaguars are massive underdogs to the Patriots this week and the Vikings are just below a coin toss at the Eagles. I’m rooting for the Jags for two reasons. First, eff the Pats. Second, long ago my dad instilled in me that you want to root for the team that beat you because then you can soothe your wounds by saying at least you lost to the champs. When the Pats usually beat the Steelers, these two are at odds with one another. Not so far this year. Watching the Vikings dismantle Drew Brees and the Saints for a half after watching the debacle that was my Steelers makes them my new favorite team.Verdict: I guess you could say that my heart wishes for this one.
Only Slightly More Likely (12.65%) – Jaguars vs. Eagles
Considering I never thought either of these two teams would even sniff the conference championships, you could say that I’m surprised that this is even a possibility, let alone the fact that it happens in about 1/8 universes that are currently in existence. The schadenfreude in me wants to see exactly what they’d talk about in the 2 weeks leading to the game and then in the 12 hours of pregame on the actual day of the game. Nevermind, I know. It would be all about Blake Bortles, World Beater. Get in line, hosers, he got me a championship first.Verdict: Nobody wishes for this horror show of a game.
Happens In Over a Third of Possible Universes (34.65%) – Patriots vs. Vikings
After my Steelers lost, I was in quite the tizzy. I went from wanting to see Brady vs. Brees to wanting to see Minnesota’s defense against Brady. I may have settled on that last one. I don’t want Tom Brady anywhere near the Super Bowl again, but if Minnesota can do to Brady for the whole game what they did to Brees for a half, sign me up for that. It would almost be worth it to listen to WEEI for a week or two and hear all of the Southies lose their crap.Verdict: This is the game that I really want to see.
Most Likely Scenario (42.35%) – Patriots vs Eagles
Brady vs. Foles. Really? I mean, we’ve heard that the Eagles have just as good a defense as the Vikings and they sort of proved it by shutting down Atlanta for the whole game instead of just a half. I’m just not as excited about the possibility of Nick Foles being in the Super Bowl as not only did I become a fan of the Vikings defense, but I think I might have a slight man crush on Case Keenum now.Verdict:Other than Pats fans who just want that ring (baby!), does anyone really want to see this game happen?
My Pick
I already told you that I want Pats and Vikes. I also think that this is the game that is likely to happen. First, Nick Foles is not Drew Brees. I’m pretty sure that Minnesota can shut him down for an entire game instead of just the half. Also, as Bill Simmons mentioned in his emergency podast to discuss the past weekend games, the Vikings have the stink of destiny on them. They won that Saints game in impossible fashion. They could become the first team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. It just feels right. You may notice that I didn’t even mention the Pats/Jags game. In spite of his shredding of my woefully unprepared Steelers team, Blake Bortles isn’t doing the same to a Bill Belichick prepared team.
