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Betting the Bowl 2023 Post Mortem * (Redux)

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Introduction

I plan to give the post mortem of the actual game. But, you know how we do things around there. Instead of throwing out half baked ideas as soon as the game ends in order to receive early accolades, we throw out half baked ideas after a week so that our bad ideas rise above the cacophony and illustrate just how bad they are. So, first, I present our Betting the Bowl 2023 Post Mortem.

You may remember that I tacked on a betting article at the end of last week as a final preview of the Super Bowl. I got the idea from simultaneous emails that arrived from both Draft Kings and FanDuel telling me about their sportsbook apps opening up in Massachusetts soon. They are eager to take my money. Perhaps they should heed the warnings of this post.

Stupid Prop Bets

The only prop bets I found to discuss in that earlier article were the coin toss (truly a sucker bet) and the Gatorade color. Vegas apparently needed the money this year (see the above picture for commentary) because they dumped purple (purple?! purple?! really?! purple?! I’m just trying to win a damn bet! Shoutout to Jim Mora there.) Gatorade in victory. Maybe next year I will throw some of my windfall (shot up to 10000 fake dollars with my other bets) into more prop bets when the sportsbooks are actually live.

Single Dollar Bets

Even on these stupid bets I made up on the spot to try to ride on the coattails of Simmons, I cleaned up as you will see. Since I only put a dollar overall into the bets, I cleared less than a dollar profit, but you all can do that math. So, let’s do the math.

Most Sure Bet (confidence: high): If you bet the Chefs to win, Mahomes was MVP. I got a bit nervous at the end because Hurts went TF off and I looked at my father in law and said, “If the Chiefs win, can they give Hurts the MVP?” I mean, the guy deserved it. But, the 0.25 parlay paid 0.93 cents and I already made my money back. Cha ching. Lost as a result (0.05 for the Iggs equivalent and crazy 0.10 for Iggs/ Sweat MVP parlay).

Most Sure Bet (confidence level: irrationally high): 0.25 to win 1.75 for Kelce to score first. Chiefs won toss and deferred, so….

Throw Me a Frickin Bone! (confidence level: high): 0.10 to win 0.80 for Hurts to score first. All it took was a questionable call taking it away from Gainwell (16 to 1) and then that ridiculous rugby play to get him there, but 0.80 richer because of it!

Living on the Edge: 0.10 to win 0.08. I called this one wrong because I thought the Chiefs might put this one over in the first half. Turns out the Iggs and their ridiculous rugby play paid this one out in no time. I should watch more football if I’m going to bet on this stupid sport.

Sevens Heaven: Last 0.14 to win 0.13. Tossed this one in to get down to my silly penny parlay. Both teams scored in the first quarter. Easiest money ever.

So, keeping score, I bet 0.99 and made back a profit of 0.94. Pretty damn good if I say so myself.

Perplexing Penny Parlay

I came up with the idea of using my last penny to put together a parlay that, if successful, paid out over 100 dollars. Once I started putting together the bet, it became pretty easy to get it over 100. The actual bet paid out 133.90 (a. if successful and b. if it won)

Before I go on, let me say that I know how parlays work. And I know this one sunk from the get go. But, still, 5 out of 7 hits isn’t a bad percentage and I’d take that any time on single bets. I think next time I might play around with the format and increase it to 1 million dollar payout on a penny. bet. That might be pushing it, but I will get it as high as I can while still making the parlay reasonable.

The Verdict

My betting the bowl 2023 post mortem is mostly a positive. An almost 1:1 payout on basically 5 bets (as some auto failed on the success of others is pretty good. Also, I picked the last two winners and last two MVPs from this year and last year. I said to my father in law several times, my dad always told me not to bet on a game where the ball bounces funny and I intend to keep that line. Still, I had fun and can’t wait to be back next year bigger and better.

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Betting the Bowl 2024

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Introduction

I started this series last year in a completely fictional sense. Then, after the Super Bowl played out, Fan Duel went live in Massachusetts. I took the 200 dollars they gave me and turned it into 1000. Then, I got stupid and lost it all. Oh well, let that be a lesson to us all. Bet virtual money as if it was real money because, hell, it actually is. Living in the future is weird. Even with all of that, I intend to stick to my mantra of not betting on a game where the ball bounces funny, so Betting the Bowl 2024 exists only on the internet.

Ridiculous Prop Bets for Super Bowl 58

Coin Toss

I went on a bit of a rant last year about the coin toss. While this represents probably the safest bet in all of gambling, I can’t bring myself to accept that anyone actually bets this thing with any conviction.

Gatorade Color

They zagged last year with purple. I put virtual money on either green or yellow with some money on red because those were the colors of the teams. Now, I’m thinking that they zagged to rake in that easy money from dopes like me who think they know something about something. Which now makes me think that they might zig this time since purple hit a few times over the last few years.

Scorigami

I saw this in an article that I searched for prop bets. Ever since visiting the page after several mentions on my favorite sports podcast, I became somewhat obsessed with Scorigami. It’s when a score occurs that never occurred before. While there’s a low chance, 25 to 1 is nothing to sneeze at. I’d throw five bucks that way.

Single Dollar Picks

Stealing yet another Bill Simmons idea, I came up with single dollar picks for last year’s article. He has million dollar picks. I have single dollar picks. Last year, I bet 1 dollar and won back 94 cents, so I have 1.94 to play with this year.

Surest Bet (KC to win the first half): The Chefs MO against the Rats in the AFC Championship was to come out firing and then just slowly squeeze the life out of them in the second half. And it worked. Add to the fact that Brock Purdy’s been slow starting games and that just makes sense to me. Plus, it’s even money and you can parlay for better odds on another ticket. Bet: 0.39 cents to win 0.38.

Game/MVP Parlay (SF/Purdy, KC/Mahomes): I cleaned up a few years ago with the Kupp MVP selection, but it’s usually a quarterback. KC/Mahomes pays +350 and SF/Purdy gives +514. Either way, you make money. Only possible spoiler I see i Kelce getting 3 TDs. 0.25 on each to win 0.88 with Mahomes or 1.29 with Purdy.

Taking the Number Here (Kelce to score first TD): He’s 7.5 to one to get it done. If KC wins the toss, defers, and stones SF on their first drive, I can see Mahomes leaning on Kelce and him scoring. Bet: 0.10 to win back 0.75.

I gotta be honest here. I’m not terribly inspired to write this article right now and I can’t find any bets that interest me other than those ones. So, I’m pocketing my winnings from last year and I’ll finish up with the Perplexing Penny Parlay.

Perplexing Penny Parlay

Last year, I put together a parlay that paid out over 100 dollars on a single penny bet. I also wanted the bet to be somewhat plausible. That worked out to 5 out of the 7 legs hitting and me feeling pretty good about myself. I think I said I might shoot for 1 million this year, but maybe I’ll just add one zero for Betting the Bowl 2024.

Chiefs First Half (-102)

Chiefs Game (+100)

Under 47.5 (-110)

Patrick Mahomes MVP (+125)

Travis Kelce First TD (+750)

Travis Kelce Most Receptions (+155)

Longest TD Under 1.5 Yards (-160)

Scorigami (+2000)

Total Payout of 125.83 on a penny bet. Getting to 1000 proved to be too hard this year, so as 31 teams find themselves saying every year, “Wait until next year.” Maybe I will have more inspiration then.

The Verdict

Last year I watched the Super Bowl with my father in law. This year, he invited me again to watch with my brother in law. Then, Chris and Jason invited me over. Then, my father in law invited m y wife and sister in law. I think that all of this social time is inhibiting my interest in betting the bowl 2024. Instead, I just want to sit and watch with my family this year.

Snap *censored* Pop Culture

Betting the Bowl 2023 Post Mortem *

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Introduction

I plan to give the post mortem of the actual game. But, you know how we do things around there. Instead of throwing out half baked ideas as soon as the game ends in order to receive early accolades, we throw out half baked ideas after a week so that our bad ideas rise above the cacophony and illustrate just how bad they are. So, first, I present our Betting the Bowl 2023 Post Mortem.

You may remember that I tacked on a betting article at the end of last week as a final preview of the Super Bowl. I got the idea from simultaneous emails that arrived from both Draft Kings and FanDuel telling me about their sportsbook apps opening up in Massachusetts soon. They are eager to take my money. Perhaps they should heed the warnings of this post.

Stupid Prop Bets

The only prop bets I found to discuss in that earlier article were the coin toss (truly a sucker bet) and the Gatorade color. Vegas apparently needed the money this year (see the above picture for commentary) because they dumped purple (purple?! purple?! really?! purple?! I’m just trying to win a damn bet! Shoutout to Jim Mora there.) Gatorade in victory. Maybe next year I will throw some of my windfall (shot up to 10000 fake dollars with my other bets) into more prop bets when the sportsbooks are actually live.

Single Dollar Bets

Even on these stupid bets I made up on the spot to try to ride on the coattails of Simmons, I cleaned up as you will see. Since I only put a dollar overall into the bets, I cleared less than a dollar profit, but you all can do that math. So, let’s do the math.

Most Sure Bet (confidence: high): If you bet the Chefs to win, Mahomes was MVP. I got a bit nervous at the end because Hurts went TF off and I looked at my father in law and said, “If the Chiefs win, can they give Hurts the MVP?” I mean, the guy deserved it. But, the 0.25 parlay paid 0.93 cents and I already made my money back. Cha ching. Lost as a result (0.05 for the Iggs equivalent and crazy 0.10 for Iggs/ Sweat MVP parlay).

Most Sure Bet (confidence level: irrationally high): 0.25 to win 1.75 for Kelce to score first. Chiefs won toss and deferred, so….

Throw Me a Frickin Bone! (confidence level: high): 0.10 to win 0.80 for Hurts to score first. All it took was a questionable call taking it away from Gainwell (16 to 1) and then that ridiculous rugby play to get him there, but 0.80 richer because of it!

Living on the Edge: 0.10 to win 0.08. I called this one wrong because I thought the Chiefs might put this one over in the first half. Turns out the Iggs and their ridiculous rugby play paid this one out in no time. I should watch more football if I’m going to bet on this stupid sport.

Sevens Heaven: Last 0.14 to win 0.13. Tossed this one in to get down to my silly penny parlay. Both teams scored in the first quarter. Easiest money ever.

So, keeping score, I bet 0.99 and made back a profit of 0.94. Pretty damn good if I say so myself.

Perplexing Penny Parlay

I came up with the idea of using my last penny to put together a parlay that, if successful, paid out over 100 dollars. Once I started putting together the bet, it became pretty easy to get it over 100. The actual bet paid out 133.90 (a. if successful and b. if it won)

Before I go on, let me say that I know how parlays work. And I know this one sunk from the get go. But, still, 5 out of 7 hits isn’t a bad percentage and I’d take that any time on single bets. I think next time I might play around with the format and increase it to 1 million dollar payout on a penny. bet. That might be pushing it, but I will get it as high as I can while still making the parlay reasonable.

The Verdict

My betting the bowl 2023 post mortem is mostly a positive. An almost 1:1 payout on basically 5 bets (as some auto failed on the success of others is pretty good. Also, I picked the last two winners and last two MVPs from this year and last year. I said to my father in law several times, my dad always told me not to bet on a game where the ball bounces funny and I intend to keep that line. Still, I had fun and can’t wait to be back next year bigger and better.

Snap *censored* Pop Culture

Betting the Bowl 2023 *

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Introduction

Surely, you anticipated more being written about the big game this year. We gave it such an impressive title, after all. To be perfectly honest, until I got an email from both Fanduel and DraftKings this morning about their sportsbooks being available in Massachusetts soon, I planned no such update. But things move fast around here, and now I’m Betting the Bowl 2023.

Neither of the books is actually live yet. They legalized sports gambling in Massachusetts on my birthday, but I assume that the books in the state got some sort of dispensation to operate before the internet books get their chance. So, as of now, these bets are still only theoretical.

Stupid Super Bowl LVII Prop Bets

As they often do, Simmons and Sal inspired me a bit in this article, too. I listened to them as I half listened to online PD at work today. They mentioned how when they started the podcast, prop bets were still a novelty and not many existed. Sal said that one book listed over 2000 this year. A Google search only gets me about a dozen.

Quite possibly the dumbest bet is the coin toss. You’re either paying 5 dollars to be right or you are paying 105 dollars to be wrong. Both are equally stupid in my opinion. But, I saw they also have odds on winning the coin toss and winning the game. For both teams, those offer plus odds and some intrigue to the proceedings. Then again, if you put money on the coin toss in any bet, perhaps you need to call one of those numbers they advertise on the sites.

They also allow you to bet the Gatorade color. At least that requires some thought. Supposedly blue leads the last few years, but that seems unlikely given the two teams playing. If the Chefs win, they probably repeat orange (+250) from their previous win. The Iggs went with yellow last time. With a +350, you also get green on this bet. I think the best bet you can make every year is the over on the anthem. People always mug the anthem at the Super Bowl.

I expected this section to be longer. But, without access to an actual book, I encountered difficulty finding some of the wackier bets.

Single Dollar Picks

I also stole this idea directly from Simmons. But, while he makes million dollar picks, I thought it might be funny to have single dollar picks. I want to take a dollar, split it up among actual bets I might make before the game. Then, with a single penny, I want to try to put together a parlay that will pay over 100 dollars if it hits. This is how I’m Betting the Bowl 2023.

Most Sure Bet (but the ball bounces funny in this game): 0.25 to win 0.93. If the Chefs win, Mahomes wins MVP, so why not tack on the extra plus money. It just makes sense.

Most Sure Bet (even if the ball bounces funny): 0.25 to win 1.75. I call this one the “take out a second mortgage” bet. Kelce to score first.

Run It Back (who is the MVP if not the QB?): 0.05 to win 0.17. If the Iggs win (and anything is possible when Andy Reid Andy Reids it up) I’m not positive that Hurts is the MVP. But rarely does anyone but the QB win. More on that later.

I Got Nothing (who is the Iggs MVP?): 0.10 to win 36.08. I have no confidence in Hurts as the MVP. The Iggs could easily win with him having Roethisbergian numbers circa Super Bow XL. So, I went completely bonkers with this bet and wrote in Josh Sweat as MVP.

Throw Me a Frickin’ Bone! (I’m the regular season MVP!): 0.10 to win 0.80. Hurts, on the other hand, has good odds to be the first TD scorer.

Living on the edge (They converted one with Chad frigging Henne): 0.10 to win 0.08. -130 that over 1.5 4th down conversions are made. I think the Chefs hit that number before halftime and the odds reflect that.

Sevens Heaven (Unless they miss an extra point): 0.14 to win 0.13. Both teams score at least one touchdown in the first half. I needed something to throw the last 14 cents until I get to my penny bet.

Perplexing Penny Parlay

I thought of this idea as ridiculous. However, once I got going and putting in numbers, it actually became pretty easy to come up with a plausible parlay that pays out over 100 on a single penny bet. Here goes.

Chefs win (+105)

Mahomes MVP (+130)

Kelce First TD (+700)

Either team gets a 2 point conversion (+245)

Both teams score 30+ (+900)

Game goes into overtime (+929)

A single penny pays out 133.90 if this hits.

The Verdict

In all honesty, all of these bets are strictly fictional. I started keeping a spreadsheet with my bets starting with 1000 dollars. I fluctuated during the playoffs and came out ahead 6000 dollars during the Super Bowl. But, I’ll let you in on a secret from last year. Most of my bets from that Super Bowl came during the game and I lost a lot of them. Then, I cleaned up with a Rams win/Kupp MVP parlay. And, so Betting the Bowl 2023 exists only in fantasy right now.

*(Or, La Fiesta de la Super Bowl LVII Mas Grande, Part 2)