Introduction

I started this article two Super Bowls ago as a fun way to interact with the “Big Game”. Every year, I get inspired to write articles about the league again. Every year, I lose that motivation very quickly. However, over the last few years, Chris, Jason, and I text semi-regularly about the league, especially in the playoffs. Yesterday, I listened to Simmons and Sal’s pod about the prop bets, so I figured I’d drop Betting the Bowl LIX (know every time you read that I’m pronouncing it phonetically as “licks”) and keep the tradition alive.

Preposterous Prop Promos

These are the bets that I used to diagnose people with a betting problem if they bet them. I still contend that betting the coin toss is a ridiculous proposition and any statistical analysis is wasted on such an outcome. However, Gatorade color actually gained some merit. Sal spent a good couple of minutes talking about it. I even wrote about it at some length last year.

Coin Toss: George says tails, 55-45.

Gatorade: The favorite is purple (KC’s color the last couple of wins), so if you think they’ll win, parlay that with this for 4 to one odds.

Scoragami again pays out 25 to 1.

Flea Flicker: 2.5 to 1. Does that include a Philly special type play?

Single Dollar Picks

Stealing the idea from Simmons, I came up with my own twist. Instead of million dollar picks, I went with a single dollar. The first year, I won 0.94 cents on the picks. Last year, I won 7 cents as the only bet that paid was my KC/Mahomes MVP pick. So, I have 2.07 this year to bet. Still overall up money, but I want to get that to 3 or 3.50 his year. In real betting, when I saw the AFC Championship devolve into no defense, I doubled my balance on FanDuel.

First Touchdown: I rarely hit this one, but the Super Bowl often goes more to script than other games. I put 0.10 on Saquon (pays 0.42), Hurts (0.55), Hunt (0.95), and Mahomes (2.10). I took Kelce last year which didn’t hit. So fade me for a chance at 10 to one odds. Note: Real time change here. I took a dime from the Saquon bet and put it on Kelce (1.00).

Saquon Over 169 yards: This seems like a sure thing. Never mind. I looked at his splits and he feasted on the Rams twice, but only hit over 150 four other times this year. I’ll still put a nickel on it for a possible return of 21 cents.

They Called this the “Sal Special”: He became famous picking this one with my Steelers. But, Phi for the 1st half and KC for the game is +241. My 0.25 cent bet pays a potential. 60 cent return.

Favorites All Around: KC to win, Mahomes for MVP, and purple Gatorade is +953. I’ll put a dime on it to win 0.95 cents.

Run it back: Philly and Hurts MVP. 0.10 cents pays out 0.85.

Perplexing Penny Parlay/The Verdict

Okay, this one took me some time to build. I wanted to make it more realistic than last year, where I just threw it together without much thought. This single penny pays out 136.82 if it hits.

Chiefs to win (-120)

Mahomes MVP (+105)

Saquon first TD (+425)

2-point conversion (+180)

Game into overtime (+1200)

Both teams over 29.5 points (+220/+210)

Game over 48.5 (-110)

Come back in a couple of days for the Betting the Bowl LIX Post Mortem. I feel good about the bets this year, which usually means that I’m going to be way off. Enjoy the game, the snacks, and for some reason, the commercials. As a rule, I hate advertisements and I don’t understand this capitalist worship of such things.